The Test with a 55-1 winner
There is nothing like hitting a real longshot, especially when that horse figures strongly based on Speed and pattern. While we do get many solid priced horses using the Numbers, it is simply rare for the public to completely ignore a horse that has a positive pattern and solid speed Numbers.
The 7 furlong s for 3YO Fillies Saturday August 6 showcased 55-1 winner Paola Queen. Exhibiting a tight Circle Back pattern, Paola Queen notched her 8.8 Best in April as she ran a competitive second in a GR 2 at Gulfstream. She then bounced, but not severely, as she regressed to 12.0 in the GR 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill. Then, in the all important turn the corner race, she improved from that regression Number to post a 10.1.
Her 8.8 Best was not the fastest Number in the race, but it certainly appeared competitive, and with a tight Circle Back pattern, she figured to improve; and we do like those horses that are likely to run faster today. In addition, she was given 8 weeks freshening, and I love the 1 furlong cutback in distance from her previous race. So, we had a couple of other plus factors to go with the Circle Back.
I really had no major knocks against the top two favorites Kareena and Off the Tracks, although they each had questionable points. Kareena actually looked very strong to me, and I thought she would dominate the pace and was a strong gate to wire threat; although she was stretching out a furlong, and had improved by over 4 points in posting her 6.6 Best in her latest. So, there was at least consideration of a possible bounce, and she was somewhat unproven at the distance. Off the Tracks, with a 6.0 Best actually had a regressing Number in her last, but it was a dominating score in a GR 1, so I did not really consider that to be a bounce, and she did run well, taking a daylight lead in the lane before being caught late to finish third.
As the race turned out, Paola Queen got up late to score at 55-1, returning boxcar payoffs of $112.00 to her backers. By the way, place horse, 4-1 Lightstream also showed a nice Circle Back pattern, plus her last improving race was her first at a Route, signaling that continued improvement was likely. The $2 Exacta on the two Circle Back horses returned a whopping $579.00!
Watch for Circle Back horses with competitive Numbers, especially if there are other positive factors!