GR 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes 2016

The 9th race at Keeneland today is the GR 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes for 3YO fillies going 1 1/8 Mile on the Turf. The race features several with very impressive credentials and the competition appears to go very deep with many fast and improving horses. In post position order:

  1. 2-1 Catch a Glimpse :8 Best. Marching pattern. We start off with the deserved morning line favorite. This miss just had an 8 race win streak ended in a heartbreaking neck loss in the GR 2 Lake Placid. She always prompts the early pace, and if not pushed early she is a very real gate to wire threat, although she has also shown that she can rate a little. Distance is not a concern, as one race back she wired a GR 1 group going 1 ¼ Mile. Excellent connections and she has been freshened for 6 weeks. Very Dangerous!!

 

  1. 5-1 On Leave:2 Best. One race regression. I am going to ignore that last race regression Number, as it came in the easiest of manners, in a gate to wire score in the GR 2 Sands Point at 1 1/8 Mile on the Belmont Turf one month ago. She has shown versatility, as her normal style is from off the pace, so I am NOT that concerned about that last race Number of 10.2, figuring that she won with something in reserve. Excellent connections and she appears extremely well suited for the distance. My top pick!

 

  1. 12-1 Stays in Vegas: 4 Best. Marching pattern. Like several others in here, she has a beautiful Marching pattern, capped off by a gutsy 3rd place finish in the GR 1 Del Mar Oaks at 1 1/8 Mile on the Turf, where she opened up by 2 ½ lengths in the lane before being caught late. She has also shown versatility in her running style, sitting just off a quick pace in her most recent. Excellent connections, positive pattern, and given 7 weeks freshening. She is a live longshot!

 

  1. 8-1 Harmonize: 3 Best. Marching pattern. Here is another with a very nice pattern, as she got up late to score in the Del Mar Oaks in a real thriller. She has been dusted a few times by Catch a Glimpse, however she continues to improve. Very good connections and she is proven at the distance. If they go too fast early, she is a real threat to be picking them up late. Worth a long look.

 

  1. 6-1 Hawksmoor: No US Number. Undetermined pattern. The Europeans generally represent an X factor; and in general I consider them to be slightly superior to US horses. She has competed well in Graded Stakes overseas, including a couple of 3rd place finishes in Group 1 races, and a couple of Group 2 wins. She gets Lasix for the first time and is bred to run all day. Leave her out at your own risk.

 

  1. 15-1 Try Your Luck: 10.8 Best. Marching pattern. Here is another with a very nice Marching pattern as she romped home by 7 widening lengths in a 1 5/16 Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs 5 weeks ago. Excellent connections and she is actually cutting back in distance. Longshot with a shot!

 

  1. 5-2 Time and Motion:5 Best. Marching pattern. Are you kidding me? Here is the morning line 2nd choice, and another with a very positive pattern. She actually took the measure of Catch a Glimpse in her most recent; turning the tables after a narrow loss to the morning line favorite. Very good connections, 8 weeks freshening and distance is no concern. The competition runs very deep in here!

 

  1. 20-1 Queen Caroline:9 Best. Marching pattern. She has nicely reeled off 4 straight wins as her Numbers continue to improve. She is stepping up in class and increasing in distance in here. Breeding appears at least OK and connections are solid. She will need a big step forward.

 

  1. 12-1 Mokat:4 Best. One race regression. Her one race regression was to 11.5 in the Del Mar Oaks where she was actually sent off as the favorite and was beaten less than one length in that thriller. Before the Del Mar Oaks, she had a Rest then Best race as she dominated by nearly 4 open lengths in a GR 2 score at Del Mar going a flat Mile in July after a 2 ½ month vacation. Trainer has solid stats and I consider Desormeaux to be one of the top money riders in the country. Longshot special!

 

Summary

WOW!!! You could make a case for just about any of these 3YO fillies in here. I expect a top effort from On Leave and I will not be surprised if Mokat runs well. Good luck!  

Numbers Guy