The fourth race at Gulfstream Park today is the Sunshine Millions Distaff Stakes. It features a competitive field of 6 older Fillies and Mares sprinting 6 furlongs. In post position order:
- 5-1 Flutterby : Long layoff. Posted an 8.7 Best (Extended Card) in August, 2015, and a more recent 16.0 Best a year ago. Her Numbers have gone south since then, and she has now been on the bench for 10 months. Trainer has had a rough last year and jockey has been having a rough meet. On the plus side, works have been impressive, and she figures to be with the early leaders. Asking a lot coming off a layoff.
- 20-1 Jamie’s Dancer: Modest Circle Back pattern. Posted a 12.7 Best last February, followed by a 13.0 in August, before again fading, and finally improved a bit in her most recent to a very mediocre 17.5. Pattern is not positive at all. This trainer has also had a rough last year and jockey is winning with 11% of his mounts. Would surprise me.
- 4-1 Mia Torri: Marching pattern. She posted her 8.1 Best in her most recent, a dominating 5 length Big Win against lesser, as she tracked the leaders and blew them away down the lane. I am a huge fan of trainer Navarro, who just acquired Mia Torri before her last race, and jockey JJ Castellano is one of the very best. Bounce concerns are not great as this was only a 0.7 improvement over her previous Best, and she has been given 6 weeks freshening. She is also the only 4YO in the race, so further improvement is certainly likely. I expect her to run well!
- 2-1 Moment of Delight: Rest then Best pattern. I do love horses with the Rest then Best pattern, and she came back in November after 2 ½ months on the sidelines to score at 7 furlongs in gutsy fashion as she duked it out the entire trip. She posted a quick 7.9 Best in that ½ length win. I also like the cutback in distance. On the downside, she has several recent gaps in her form, which tends to indicate some kind of problem. Connections have very good stats. Very Dangerous!
- 9-5 You Bought Her: Even pattern. The lukewarm morning line favorite runs consistently, posting Numbers in the 8’s in her most recent efforts, including an 8.3 Best one race back. Trainer Hinsley has modest stats, and jock JR Velazquez is primo. Dangerous!
- 6-1 Lucky Switch: 9.4 Best. Rest then Best pattern. Has similar (albeit somewhat slower) pattern to Moment of Delight, as she posted her 9.4 Best after a long layoff. I really the Rest then Best pattern; however it is tarnished as she has been sidelined again for over 2 months. Will need another big step forward.
Several have competitive Numbers in here; Mia Torri is my top choice.