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Numbers Guy BlogMinimize
By The Numbers Guy on 5/17/2011 12:12 PM
The Preakness tends to be quite formful.  Out of the past 21 races, the fave has won 9 times (43%).  16 of 21 (76%) winners have gone off at less than 4-1.  In fact, in the past 2 decades, the only winner paying more than 10-1 was 2005 Bernadini at 12-1, so make sure you have a solid reason before fishing for longshots.

I do not usually give much consideration to post position bias; however, it is hard to ignore that since 1995 no Preakness winner has started from post positions 1-3.  In fact, only 2 out of the past 16 winners have started inside post position 6, Curlin in 2007 and Red Bullet in 2000, both from PP 4. In handicapping this year’s Preakness, I will likely give a slight bit more consideration to the outside horses.

While I duly note that horses from the outside posts have performed exceedingly well in the Preakness, it is true that most of these were also superior horses: Lookin at Lucky, Rachel Alexandra, Big Brown, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Point Given, Real...
  
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My Thoughts on Breeder's Cup 2014 Friday
False Favorites and the Circle Back Pattern
Keeneland Race 8 Saturday, October 11, 2014
Several Positives on a 10-1 Shot
Iffy Favorites
Pennsylvania Derby
European v American Turf Horses
Freshness and the Fastest Horse
  
Recent_CommentsMinimize
Re: False Favorites and the Circle Back Pattern
How would you have evaluated National in the race who had a decent marching pattern?
Re: Pennsylvania Derby
Well you pretty much nailed it, although I myself could not find the need to the the race. I guess we'll wait for the breeders cup.
Re: A Little Something Caught My Eye in the 6th at Belmont 9/6/14:
Great observation I've been following your blog for awhile now and that observation made me realize it's time to start ordering the race cards.
Re: A Little Something Caught My Eye in the 6th at Belmont 9/6/14:
Another excellent post. Thanks, any chance you can post the sheets for this race?

Re: Numbers Guy Thoughts on Saratoga 8/30/14 #9
Thanks again Number Guy
Re: Numbers Guy Thoughts on Del Mar 8/31/14 #5
More Complexity's damsire is Yonaguska, a solid miler. Fifty percent or more of his progeny won at a mile, so I don't see the distance as an obstacle for the filly. Her sire, Square Eddie, wasn't a router, but both her sire and damsire could handle synthetic, so that's a plus. Tough race.

I always enjoy reading your analysis and comments on the races.
Re: Numbers Guy Thoughts on Saratoga 8/30/14 #9
Nice analysis (and outcome, as well)

Keep 'em coming!
Re: PETA Controversy: Hype or Truth?
Gary Stevens and the buzzer is very disappointing to say the least. Again, I believe he deserves a hearing, but the rules are the rules. If he did in fact break the rules, he should suffer the consequences. If the rules/laws are not enforced, why have them?
Re: Time after Time
Your comments on Gary Stevens admitting to using a buzzer would be appreciated?? Should any action be taken?? Maybe ruled off for LIFE??
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins – Part 2
here's the deal. Will take Charge missed being the Horse of the Year by a nose to Mucho Man. Take charge was the best 3yr old in America last year at the end of the season and had a 3 month lay-ff. Lea a Gr 3 who may go forward off his last a 5yr old going off his best last race with reserve. Got away from the CLASS of the race at 3/4 mark and lasted with every thing left and set a new track record. I gave him a 0. and Take Charge a 0, my point is I don't bet Gr2 or -03's against 1's and not against the top 3 year old in the country. Big Score for those who like that bet keep marching, not for me.
  
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My Thoughts on Breeder's Cup 2014 Friday
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European v American Turf Horses
Freshness and the Fastest Horse
  
CommentsMinimize
Re: False Favorites and the Circle Back Pattern
How would you have evaluated National in the race who had a decent marching pattern?
Re: Pennsylvania Derby
Well you pretty much nailed it, although I myself could not find the need to the the race. I guess we'll wait for the breeders cup.
Re: A Little Something Caught My Eye in the 6th at Belmont 9/6/14:
Great observation I've been following your blog for awhile now and that observation made me realize it's time to start ordering the race cards.
Re: A Little Something Caught My Eye in the 6th at Belmont 9/6/14:
Another excellent post. Thanks, any chance you can post the sheets for this race?

Re: Numbers Guy Thoughts on Saratoga 8/30/14 #9
Thanks again Number Guy
Re: Numbers Guy Thoughts on Del Mar 8/31/14 #5
More Complexity's damsire is Yonaguska, a solid miler. Fifty percent or more of his progeny won at a mile, so I don't see the distance as an obstacle for the filly. Her sire, Square Eddie, wasn't a router, but both her sire and damsire could handle synthetic, so that's a plus. Tough race.

I always enjoy reading your analysis and comments on the races.
Re: Numbers Guy Thoughts on Saratoga 8/30/14 #9
Nice analysis (and outcome, as well)

Keep 'em coming!
Re: PETA Controversy: Hype or Truth?
Gary Stevens and the buzzer is very disappointing to say the least. Again, I believe he deserves a hearing, but the rules are the rules. If he did in fact break the rules, he should suffer the consequences. If the rules/laws are not enforced, why have them?
Re: Time after Time
Your comments on Gary Stevens admitting to using a buzzer would be appreciated?? Should any action be taken?? Maybe ruled off for LIFE??
Re: Marching, New Bests, and Big Wins – Part 2
here's the deal. Will take Charge missed being the Horse of the Year by a nose to Mucho Man. Take charge was the best 3yr old in America last year at the end of the season and had a 3 month lay-ff. Lea a Gr 3 who may go forward off his last a 5yr old going off his best last race with reserve. Got away from the CLASS of the race at 3/4 mark and lasted with every thing left and set a new track record. I gave him a 0. and Take Charge a 0, my point is I don't bet Gr2 or -03's against 1's and not against the top 3 year old in the country. Big Score for those who like that bet keep marching, not for me.
  
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