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Numbers Guy BlogMinimize
By The Numbers Guy on 5/17/2011 12:12 PM
The Preakness tends to be quite formful.  Out of the past 21 races, the fave has won 9 times (43%).  16 of 21 (76%) winners have gone off at less than 4-1.  In fact, in the past 2 decades, the only winner paying more than 10-1 was 2005 Bernadini at 12-1, so make sure you have a solid reason before fishing for longshots.

I do not usually give much consideration to post position bias; however, it is hard to ignore that since 1995 no Preakness winner has started from post positions 1-3.  In fact, only 2 out of the past 16 winners have started inside post position 6, Curlin in 2007 and Red Bullet in 2000, both from PP 4. In handicapping this year’s Preakness, I will likely give a slight bit more consideration to the outside horses.

While I duly note that horses from the outside posts have performed exceedingly well in the Preakness, it is true that most of these were also superior horses: Lookin at Lucky, Rachel Alexandra, Big Brown, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Point Given, Real...
  
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Circle Back with a Regression Blog Comment Response
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Recent_CommentsMinimize
Re: Circle Back with a Regression
Doesn't T Sizzle also show the same similar pattern running his last race on the turf also?
Re: Another Fastest Horse Blog
Another example why the Numbers give a handicapper an edge over the public: The 3rd race at SA on Fri. a 16k claimer for NW3L. Warren's Tricia R and Winninginfashion looked hopeless in the Form. I looked at the Numbers and they had the best numbers, both in their last race.
5/1 and 28/1. They ran 1-2 and the $1 ex. paid $89.90.
Thanks for the great work you and your team do.
Re: GP GR 2 Inside Information Stakes March 19,2016 Pre-Race Analysis
Will you be analyzing the Fla. Derby?
Re: 2016 Santa Anita Big Cap
Good to see you back, Numbers Guy. I have missed your blogs the past month. I like Donworth and Imperative in the Big Cap. Rest then Best to a 1 for Donworth and a Marching pattern to a neg. # for Imperative. Ex. box.
Re: 2016 Santa Anita Big Cap
Good to see you back, Numbers Guy. I have missed your blogs the past month. I like Donworth and Imperative in the Big Cap. Rest then Best to a 1 for Donworth and a Marching pattern to a neg. # for Imperative. Ex. box.
Re: Surface Changes, Positive Patterns, and Big Wins
I saw her line also, but I cautioned on using her because I feared that 8.7 was outside her normal range, and probably would regress of that performance. That and the fact she was returning to the races off the least amount of time than any other runner entered.

But she out ran her odds, and that's what mattered most here
Re: Churchill Downs Chilukki Stakes, Nov. 7
Super Analysis.
Thanks for taking the time to post.
Re: Churchill Downs Chilukki Stakes, Nov. 7
Nice call on Spelling Again, Numbers Guy! I am really enjoying using your race cards to handicap the races.
Re: 2015 Breeder's Cup Classic: Really Strong Field Tough To Handicap
I like Tonalist...nice marching pattern to a neg. # which is the fastest in the race. 6/1 morning line.
Re: 2015 Breeder's Cup: Mind the 3YO’s
Yes, the Keeneland cards have the Cup races
  
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CommentsMinimize
Re: Circle Back with a Regression
Doesn't T Sizzle also show the same similar pattern running his last race on the turf also?
Re: Another Fastest Horse Blog
Another example why the Numbers give a handicapper an edge over the public: The 3rd race at SA on Fri. a 16k claimer for NW3L. Warren's Tricia R and Winninginfashion looked hopeless in the Form. I looked at the Numbers and they had the best numbers, both in their last race.
5/1 and 28/1. They ran 1-2 and the $1 ex. paid $89.90.
Thanks for the great work you and your team do.
Re: GP GR 2 Inside Information Stakes March 19,2016 Pre-Race Analysis
Will you be analyzing the Fla. Derby?
Re: 2016 Santa Anita Big Cap
Good to see you back, Numbers Guy. I have missed your blogs the past month. I like Donworth and Imperative in the Big Cap. Rest then Best to a 1 for Donworth and a Marching pattern to a neg. # for Imperative. Ex. box.
Re: 2016 Santa Anita Big Cap
Good to see you back, Numbers Guy. I have missed your blogs the past month. I like Donworth and Imperative in the Big Cap. Rest then Best to a 1 for Donworth and a Marching pattern to a neg. # for Imperative. Ex. box.
Re: Surface Changes, Positive Patterns, and Big Wins
I saw her line also, but I cautioned on using her because I feared that 8.7 was outside her normal range, and probably would regress of that performance. That and the fact she was returning to the races off the least amount of time than any other runner entered.

But she out ran her odds, and that's what mattered most here
Re: Churchill Downs Chilukki Stakes, Nov. 7
Super Analysis.
Thanks for taking the time to post.
Re: Churchill Downs Chilukki Stakes, Nov. 7
Nice call on Spelling Again, Numbers Guy! I am really enjoying using your race cards to handicap the races.
Re: 2015 Breeder's Cup Classic: Really Strong Field Tough To Handicap
I like Tonalist...nice marching pattern to a neg. # which is the fastest in the race. 6/1 morning line.
Re: 2015 Breeder's Cup: Mind the 3YO’s
Yes, the Keeneland cards have the Cup races
  
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