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Numbers Guy BlogMinimize
By The Numbers Guy on 5/17/2011 12:12 PM
The Preakness tends to be quite formful.  Out of the past 21 races, the fave has won 9 times (43%).  16 of 21 (76%) winners have gone off at less than 4-1.  In fact, in the past 2 decades, the only winner paying more than 10-1 was 2005 Bernadini at 12-1, so make sure you have a solid reason before fishing for longshots.

I do not usually give much consideration to post position bias; however, it is hard to ignore that since 1995 no Preakness winner has started from post positions 1-3.  In fact, only 2 out of the past 16 winners have started inside post position 6, Curlin in 2007 and Red Bullet in 2000, both from PP 4. In handicapping this year’s Preakness, I will likely give a slight bit more consideration to the outside horses.

While I duly note that horses from the outside posts have performed exceedingly well in the Preakness, it is true that most of these were also superior horses: Lookin at Lucky, Rachel Alexandra, Big Brown, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Point Given, Real...
  
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2015 Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga
A Huge Bargain on the Fastest Horse
Grade 1 Pacific Classic
Class or Distance: Which Should Carry More Weight?
2015 Arlington Million
Odds and Ends
Mind the Surface
Saratoga's Grade 1 Vanderbilt Stakes
In Plain View
  
Recent_CommentsMinimize
Re: Class or Distance: Which Should Carry More Weight?
Our Variant calculation deals with this the same way it would on muddy/slow tracks
Re: Class or Distance: Which Should Carry More Weight?
Question:

Do you adjust your final figures on turf for races that are run very slowly (e.g. paceless) in the beginning?

I've been told that other figure makers make adjustments for these types of races that have snail like fractions
Re: Odds and Ends
question:
Race # 2 Del Mar 8/15
Tiz a Kiss ran iallowance race July 25,2015 and came in 5th
Show Stealer ran in the same race on July 25 and came in 2nd
iTiz a Kiss received a 15.6 for the race but Show receiver got a 18.4 Is this an error?
Re: Odds and Ends
This is excellent, thanks so much.
I love the numbers.
Your comments are very helpful.
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Recap
Why did Keen Ice receive a better figure than Frosted?
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Ok
Yesterday at Belmont
Race 1 and Race 4 were pure mysteries?..
Can you shed any light?
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Thank you.
Great work.
I am still enjoying and having fun.
Also winning money as I go.
Keep up the great work!
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Nice commentary
sheets for Saturday Belmont Card feature mucho value plays
Hope the Numbers hold up
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Top 5
Thanks again for providing the numbers for the Derby. I bet Firing Line based on the pattern.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Bottom 10
He is a fine horse. I simply have a bias against overseas horses coming to US for the first time to race against our Grade 1 horses on the dirt. Turf would be a different story.
  
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Odds and Ends
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Saratoga's Grade 1 Vanderbilt Stakes
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CommentsMinimize
Re: Class or Distance: Which Should Carry More Weight?
Our Variant calculation deals with this the same way it would on muddy/slow tracks
Re: Class or Distance: Which Should Carry More Weight?
Question:

Do you adjust your final figures on turf for races that are run very slowly (e.g. paceless) in the beginning?

I've been told that other figure makers make adjustments for these types of races that have snail like fractions
Re: Odds and Ends
question:
Race # 2 Del Mar 8/15
Tiz a Kiss ran iallowance race July 25,2015 and came in 5th
Show Stealer ran in the same race on July 25 and came in 2nd
iTiz a Kiss received a 15.6 for the race but Show receiver got a 18.4 Is this an error?
Re: Odds and Ends
This is excellent, thanks so much.
I love the numbers.
Your comments are very helpful.
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Recap
Why did Keen Ice receive a better figure than Frosted?
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Ok
Yesterday at Belmont
Race 1 and Race 4 were pure mysteries?..
Can you shed any light?
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Thank you.
Great work.
I am still enjoying and having fun.
Also winning money as I go.
Keep up the great work!
Re: 2015 Belmont Stakes Analysis: Top 4
Nice commentary
sheets for Saturday Belmont Card feature mucho value plays
Hope the Numbers hold up
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Top 5
Thanks again for providing the numbers for the Derby. I bet Firing Line based on the pattern.
Re: Kentucky Derby 2015 Analysis: Bottom 10
He is a fine horse. I simply have a bias against overseas horses coming to US for the first time to race against our Grade 1 horses on the dirt. Turf would be a different story.
  
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